SocGen expects payrolls to smash expectations

SocGen expects payrolls to smash expectations

The April employment report should more than reverse the weakness in March. Our forecast for a 315k job gain is underpinned by three factors. Firstly, claims data point to an above-trend increase. Second, weather should provide a boost as the number of people who could not work due to bad weather was slightly elevated in March. This should be reversed given the above-normal temperatures in April. Lastly, the March survey week ended relatively early, resulting in a five-week span between the two surveys. We have found the April five-week effect to be statistically significant and 'worth' about 120k jobs.



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